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In a move that will send ripples across the printing industry, the US Department of Commerce has announced its final calculations on the size of antidumping (AD) and countervailing duties (CVD) for aluminum lithographic printing plates imported from Japan and China. With final determinations set to be made by the US International Trade Commission (ITC) in the coming weeks, this is a hot topic for industry players. The broader implications of these tariffs remain uncertain—especially for the ongoing shift from traditional offset to digital printing.
The Tariffs: A High Stakes Decision
On September 23, the US Department of Commerce issued its final calculation of the proposed tariffs. Plates imported from Japan will face a 91.83% AD duty, while those from China will be hit even harder with a combined AD and CVD rate of 151.51%. These figures follow Kodak’s initial petition, filed in late 2023, which argued that foreign manufacturers were selling aluminum lithographic printing plates at unfairly low or subsidized prices—thereby harming the US printing plate market. The company cited the need for tariffs to be levied on certain imported printing plates in a bid to protect US manufacturing jobs.
Kodak remains the last domestic manufacturer of aluminum plates and, according to its Chairman and CEO Jim Continenza, these tariffs are essential to protecting American manufacturing jobs. Continenza explained, “This ruling is another significant step toward establishing a level playing field in plates and protecting the US print industry’s future.”
However, not all in the industry share Kodak’s beliefs.
Industry Concerns
The announcement of the proposed duties has been met with widespread opposition from industry bodies and businesses that rely on aluminum plates. Fujifilm North America (a major player in the aluminum lithographic printing plate market) issued a statement on September 24, declaring the company “vigorously opposes the imposition of additional tariffs on imports of aluminum lithographic printing plates, which are already increasing costs for the entire printing plate market.”
The concerns voiced by Fujifilm are shared by a broad cross-section of the industry. Other organizations, including the American Commerce Marketing Association and the PRINTING United Alliance, have written to the ITC urging the commissioners to reject the duties. Their argument is that additional tariffs will only serve to drive up costs for American businesses, jeopardize jobs, and reduce access to essential products.
A joint letter from these groups warned that “the new proposed duties on aluminum printing plates have the potential to devastate entire industry segments, increase costs for businesses and their customers, and threaten the viability of many American small businesses.”
What’s at Stake?
The imposition of these tariffs comes at a challenging time for the US printing industry, which employs roughly 8.5 million people and accounts for 5% of the civilian labor force. The added costs from tariffs could disproportionately impact small businesses that rely on affordable printing services. As Tim Freeman—Co-President of the Print & Graphic Communications Association (PGCA), an organization that represents nearing 400 print service businesses in New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania—pointed out, “New tariffs on printing plates will increase costs for printers and graphic communications companies, and the businesses they serve.”
PGCA raised concern that there are currently not enough US-based sources of printing plates to meet supply demand for all businesses. Many smaller print shops, community newspapers, and independent publishers could be forced to raise their prices or shut down due to the increase in costs. Fujifilm and other players argue that Kodak is the only company benefiting from these tariffs at the expense of the broader industry.
It’s important to note that the ITC’s announcement is not final; it is set to vote on the implementation of the duties on October 22, with a written decision to follow on November 4. Should the ITC find that Kodak did not suffer material injury from the imports, the duties could be terminated. On the other hand, if the ITC sides with Kodak, the tariffs will be imposed—setting a precedent that could reshape the future of the US printing market. Until then, the industry watches with bated breath.
Keypoint Intelligence Opinion
If the proposed tariffs on plates are implemented, how much will that impact print volumes and that will depend on the type of printing job? If there is a two-sided flyer with two sets of CMYK plates, the higher price to the print buyer will probably not be much more than the pre-tariff cost and, therefore, will most likely be accepted. This is very different than if the print job is a publication with many pages with more plates needed to produce it. Some print buyers might explore alternative communication channels and/or reduce the run lengths of their print orders to stay within budget.
The combined effect of potential loss of offset print volumes and rising plate costs will further favor digital printing as cost crossover points expand. Higher plate costs will naturally shift the needle toward digital, but overall declining offset volumes (due to a potential additional loss and/or an increase of shorter run lengths) will also lower offset equipment utilization rates. This, in turn, will drive up offset budgeted hourly rates, making offset products more expensive and increase the cost cross over points in favor of digital printing. The more offset print transitions to digital, the more expensive offset printing becomes due to these decreasing utilization rates. At what point, then, does it become unfeasible for some print service providers (PSPs) to maintain offset printing in-house?
While there’s still a need for long-run offset print jobs, it’s likely they will be consolidated among a smaller number of PSPs capable of also serving the trade at aggressive pricing. If plate costs continue to rise, the natural trend of some PSPs transitioning 100% to digital printing could accelerate. Another implication within offset is that PSPs might shift from process-less to process plates to reduce costs, which would have a negative impact on the environment.
This could be good news for digital printing vendors. Even though their color print volumes have grown in the US at a 5% CAGR from 2019-2023, their revenues (hardware, service, and supplies) have declined the same number during the same period. This is due to the print volume lost and transition/consolidation from low production digital printers that operate at a higher click cost to large production presses with less running costs.
If approved, this represents a further step forward in the ongoing shift from offset to digital printing—an evolution recently accelerated by rising offset supplies (paper make ready waste and aluminum) and labor costs, alongside a growing shortage of skilled offset operators. Also, extreme mailing increases add an additional challenge to PSPs that continue to strive for differentiation and complementing other communication channels by adapting to any industry changes.
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