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A little over four weeks ago, we published out latest forecasts for toner, ink, and paper used in the United States and Western Europe. I wished it had been better news as most of the charts were on a downward trajectory. Look deeper and explore the executive summaries, though, and you’ll see there’s another story to be told of shifting print volume across devices and technologies.
Methodology Matters
Those who have worked in this industry for a while will know that the higher the number of devices, the more supplies consumed and (consequently) the greater the revenue annuity yield. So knowing how many devices are in use and how they are being used is critical. We have a clear view of over 200 million printers and MFPs in use across the US and Western Europe. Whether in the home or the workplace, our mature market-modeling methodology delivers fascinating trend insights.
Forecasting: Experienced Skills and Not an Art Form
At the end of 2023, all the pandemic legacy impacts were over. This was driven by the digital transformation of documents, hybrid working, and the noise of artificial intelligence (AI) being set in, causing “the new normal” to be formed. Over the last year, considerable effort has been made to go behind these headlines to understand how macro trends are converting into clicks at devices. The result is a set of forecast deliverables that projects our expectations for supplies revenues, page volumes, and cartridge and paper demand out to 2028.
Shiny Nuggets
The document print market is consolidating. There are fewer vendors selling hardware and fewer people are printing in offices and homes, but the remaining landscape of printers and MFPs is changing. The devices that are left often wind up working harder to produce smaller format pages than the large quantity of installed copiers demands. Consequently, and going against the negative trends, are average monthly page volumes, which are rising at a healthy 5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2028.
And those page volumes are moving onto laser and business inkjet A4/letter-sized devices sitting in home offices, micro, and small businesses. The hybrid workforce is choosing to print at home and both print-as-a-service and subscription payment options are enabling that change. Is it disruptive change? No, but it is a clear trend.
It’s also interesting to note that the industry is not afraid to pass on increasing cost pressures as revenues for all types of supplies are forecast to keep pace with market trends. Revenues are holding a healthy 6% CAGR over our forecast periods. We should not lose sight of the value of the combined US and Western European supplies market in 2023, which was roughly $45 billion!
Keypoint Intelligence Opinion
By 2028, revenues for supplies in these markets will have dropped by about $6.8 billion. Taking this amount of revenue out of a market will have an impact on jobs, market, brands, and product ranges. Margins are a different matter, and it’s not all bad news on that score. But change is going to impact every corner of our industry and that pace of change is accelerating, too. The strongest and most agile OEMs are repurposing their business plans to align with many of these new trends, and they’ll continue to do so. We see it happening in our market models.
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